Mitigating Power, Oil and Climate Disasters
Dr. J. K. Walker
88 Starwood Rd. Nepean, ON, K2G 1Z5 or (613)-224-3570
Smart and Self-healing Power Transmission Systems
Ottawa Hydro and other Remote Cities
Two major events are about to significantly change the world in the next few decades. The first is global warming which has already caused considerable damage in the form of more and stronger hurricanes, tornadoes, floods and droughts. Global warming is caused by excessive and uncontrolled burning of fossil fuels which produces excess carbon dioxide that acts like a blanket to keep the earth warm. Enhanced concentrations of such greenhouse gases (GhG) in the atmosphere in the past have lead to some long runaway global warming periods which have devastated plant and animal life on the earth. The second problem is the large consumption of oil which is now much greater than the replacement rate so that it will soon exceeded the supply around 2050. This has caused higher prices (~$140/brl July 08) and volatility in the market which is expected to continue. Together these two effects and the mismanaged US economy have caused a depression and destabilize the World economy (Stern report). The US now has a debt of ~12 trillion and it is expected to reach ~20+ trillion in 2030 before they balance their budget. This will drag down the Canadian and other economies for the next decade. The reduced oil consumption during the recession has brought about a lower price for now (~$80/brl, Jan. 2010).
It is possible to mitigate both the climate and oil disasters with rapid conversion to more efficient systems and using clean electrical energy where possible. This requires a significant international effort to mitigate these disasters and every country and most corporations, institutions and families must all do their part as expeditiously as possible. The International Energy Agency estimates that it will cost about 45 trillion dollars to significantly improve the energy technology efficiency and thereby reduce the carbon dioxide emission by 50% by 2050. China has recently invested more in clean energy than any other country. Canada needs to cut its GhG emission by nearly a third (~180 Mt) by 2012 to meet its Kyoto commitments which will be exceedingly difficult. The Harper government’s floundering regulations for a green plan only have modest intensity based goals of 20% reduction of the 2006 level of GhG production or ~150 Mt by about 2020. Further, the national Roundtable on the Environment and the Economy have analyzed these regulations and found them to have numerous loopholes for most industries and hence Canada will, in all probability, not meet even this very modest target. The recent Bali agreement calls for a 25-40% reduction by 2020. The B. C. government of Premier Campbell is to be commended for its’ new $10 a tonne carbon emissions tax on nearly all sources of greenhouse gases in the province and is aiming for a 33% reduction by 2020 with annual further $5 reductions. This is a good revenue neutral plan and all the other provinces and territories should adopt it and in effect be the Canadian green agency. These governments should endeavor to reduce Canada’s GhG by 10% of the 1990 level by 2020 or ~30% from the present level. However, Canada will soon have to make payments on missing its Kyoto agreement and the money for this should come from solely those provinces that exceeded their Kyoto (1990) emission limits.
The solar irradiance (brightness) was about 6% less than present about 700 million years ago and the continents were mainly around the equator. These conditions and possibly a large volcanic eruption or large meteorite impact were enough to trigger a snowball earth for about a hundred million years. Possible changes in the core of the sun would be another cause of climate. Natural variations of the earth’s orbit and precession redistribute larger variations of the solar irradiation with the Milankovitch periods of the 100,000 year elliptical cycle, the 41,000 year axial tilt cycle and the 23,000 year precession or wobble cycle. There are also small short period variation of the solar irradiance (brightness) and also small changes in the solar irradiance over the 11 and 22 year solar sunspot cycle and related terrestrial temperatures of ~0.2 °C. The earth’s oceans and land mass also store heat for a many years and can release it later as with the El Niño effect. There is also the Gleissberg 87 year cycle and the 210 year DeVries-Suess solar cycle and also a broad ~1100 year cycle which corresponds to the recent little ice ages period. The decadal variations cause some direct forcing (heating) of the terrestrial atmosphere of a degree or so which appears to be related to recent shorter durations of the sunspot cycles These major solar variations are not yet taken into account in the modeling of the terrestrial climate.
The typical variation of the Earth’s greenhouse gases can enhance the average temperature up to perhaps 40 °C, depending on the concentration of the gases. These greenhouse gases can vary dramatically and hence are another cause of climate. The enhanced greenhouse effect is now (CO2 is ~395 ppm - 40% above normal: see Ornery Climate Beast chart and IPCC report) so large that its effect is about 33 °C and the global mean temperature is nearly 2°C above the natural (Milankovitch) temperature trend. Methane gas is much more effective as a greenhouse gas and there is ice core evidence that it has increased significantly with the production of rice in Asia 5000 years ago. These gases are causing significant warming with enhanced weather effects all around the Earth and dramatic changes in both Polar Regions.
The onset of the first continental ice age was about 2.5 million years ago and initially had periods of about 41,000 years. Since about a million years ago the ice ages have lasted for about 110,000 years and have four stages each of about 25,000 - 30,000 years with an interglacial period of about 12,000 years. Recent studies indicate that we are at least 4000 years into the first stage of the next ice age except that the production of crops, deforestation and fossil fuel consumption by mankind and the associated enhanced greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, water vapor, hydrogen sulphide and soot) have so far stalled the onset of this glacial period (see Dr. W. F. Ruddiman's article in Scientific American, March, 2005). However, with the passing of each century we are progressing a little further into the depth of this ice age and it would normally require increasingly more greenhouse gases to maintain a moderate climate. Unfortunately, the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are now much beyond a safe level and needs to be markedly reduced. Dr. R. Boswell concluded from a ten year study in the Arctic that soot in the is currently the No. 2 driver of climate change -behind CO2 but ahead of methane -and that curbing emissions of black carbon would produce the fastest, most effective and affordable international response to climate change and the shrinking of the Arctic sea ice.
The latest rate of the increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is now about 3.5 ppm per year and the associated rapid increase in the global temperature over the past decade and particularly in Polar Regions is ominous and indicates a new phase in the Earth’s climate. The GhG effect is greater in the Polar Regions and it is now melting the permafrost and tundra in the Arctic which releases huge amounts of methane and carbon dioxide. Another degree increase in global temperature would release enough GhGs in the Polar Regions to effect significant further reduction in the polar ice fields. The bare land and ice free oceans in the Polar Regions absorb more solar radiation and thereby enhances polar temperatures which, in turn, cause shorter winters and earlier springs. This and the thawing permafrost GhGs cause a positive feedback effect and hence are of major concern. Recent studies suggest the polar ice cap is decreasing at about 8% per decade and could essentially be ice free in the fall by ~2025 rather than the earlier prediction of ~2100 and that could lead to the first stage of a runaway global warming period.
There are now rivers of ice in the glaciers in the Antarctic which are melting at twice the normal rate but those in southeast Greenland are melting at five times the normal rate. The melting of most of the ice on Greenland could take a hundred years or so and would be the second stage. The collapse of the massive ice sheet covering West Antarctica is a nightmare scenario of global warming and could commence in this century. There is so much water locked away in the ice that it would raise sea levels by an average of several metres in a few centuries. The melting of the ice cap in the Antarctic, which is now slowly warming, would be the third stage. Recent studies indicate that this is now possible and it may lead to a catastrophic runaway event. The melting of these two regions would cause the oceans to rise 10 centimeters or so every decade and could be about 2 metres or so by ~2100 and possibly 10 meters by the end of the following century after the demise of the Greenland ice cap. The rising oceans will also cause more caving of the ice fields in the Antarctic and this may also cause about a rise of a few meters in the ocean by the end of the next century. The Antarctic ice mass is much larger and the sea level would increase by another 60 m by the end of the millennium or so. The associated flooding will gradually displace several hundred million people each century and the economic and social costs will be significant.
The ice fields are also retreating in the Cordillera and other mountain ranges and this is causing droughts on the prairies and elsewhere. The flow in many of the prairie rivers is now half of what it once was and irrigation farming and some cities are now at risk which is of some concern. An extended drought in Australia caused severe water shortages in most regions but has been alleviated with recent rains (2009). Recent droughts in China and Texas will significantly reduce the winter wheat crop and other cereals in 2009 and 2010.
The oceans can only safely absorb at most a few gigatonnes (Gt) of carbon dioxide a year and the forests, grasslands and soil perhaps another few gigatonnes or so. However, mankind is now releasing about 32 Gt a year into the atmosphere and the oceans and grasses absorb about a third of this. Consequently the carbon dioxide level in the atmosphere is now relentlessly increasing at >3 ppm a year despite significant efforts in Europe and elsewhere to reduce GhG emissions. Recent research suggests that the early global target of 50% for the reduction of GhGs will have to be increased to at least 90% or to ~3 Gt per year ASAP to stabilize the concentration of GhGs in the atmosphere enough to maintain the Earth’s climate at an enhanced level of activity. A recent OECD report also suggests reductions to 0.3 tC per capita per year by 2100. Obviously much more needs to be done by the developed and developing countries to reduce the emission of GhGs to acceptable levels so that the enhanced global warming effects will eventually diminish and the climate can approach a more acceptable level (See ‘The Physical Science behind Climate Change’ by W. Collins et al., Sci. Am., Aug. 2007 and the recent book/article How to Solve the Climate Problem by Dr. J Hansen). Note the IPCC reports have been toned down, particularly by officials from the United States, Russia, China and Saudi Arabian and hence their reports underestimate the nature and effects of global warming.
A rock found mostly in Oman can be harnessed to soak up carbon dioxide – the main greenhouse gas – at a rate that could help slow global warming. When carbon dioxide comes in contact with the rock, peridotite, the gas is converted into solid minerals such as calcite. Geologist Peter Kelemen and geochemist Juerg Matter said the naturally occurring process can be supercharged one million times with drilling and injection to grow underground minerals that can permanently store two billion or more of the 30 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide emitted by human activity every year. They say four to five billion tonnes a year of the gas could be stored near Oman by using peridotite in parallel with another emerging technique developed by Columbia's Klaus Lackner using synthetic "trees" that suck carbon dioxide out of the air. This is very promising technology and the Geological Survey of Canada should explore, forthwith, if there is peridotite in Canada.
The use of CFCs and other ozone-depleting halocarbons have a significant warming effect on the atmosphere. The mitigation of these halocarbons by the 1987 Montreal protocol will have prevented the equivalent of about 10 gigatonnes of CO2 being pumped into the atmosphere every year which is several times the Kyoto targets. It is strongly recommended that governments continue to remove all refrigerators and air conditioners manufactured prior to 2000 from homes and offices so that this old refrigerant can be captured and stored in safe vessels.
The mountain pine beetle in B.C. used to be exterminated by cold winter weather. However, as parts of the North warms up it can now survive most winters and it has now destroyed perhaps a third of B.C’s forests and about $65 billion worth of valuable timber. The beetles can also breed successfully in the Jack pine and they have advanced well into western Alberta. Hence the whole Canadian Boreal forest is now at risk. The extra economic and social costs of these enhanced events are now a few hundreds of billions and thousands of jobs a year and are obviously of concern.
The oceans are also
becoming warmer and now are about 30% more acidic than in the 1800s as they
absorb more CO2. This is destroying many corals and plankton
which is the base of the food chain for aquatic life in the oceans. About
half of the oxygen we breathe is produced from plankton. The oceans could be about 150% more acidic by
the end of the century if little is done to curtail emissions. The coral
reefs are the basis of a diverse range of aquatic life and a food chain which
could be destroyed in a few decades. The southern ocean is also becoming
windier and this has slowed the absorption of carbon
dioxide significantly
and is another concern. This may have contributed to the recent increased
level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere which has been much more than
expected.
The ocean ecosystems are also in trouble and losing species fast, which could leave limited seafood to harvest by ~2050 if the current global trend continues. The salmon run in 2009 up the Fraser River was down by 90% (10 million fish) and probably depleted by squid which have prospered as their predators have been markedly reduced by overfishing. The squid have moved up the western coast of the U.S. with the warmer ocean and into the northern salmon routes. The jellyfish population in all the oceans has increased dramatically by the transfer of ocean ballast water and they are causing a crisis in the fishing and beach tourist industries. Ocean bottom dragging destroys the habitat of many fish and hence should be banned. Canada should not support such crude fishing methods.
The GhGs could reach ~700 ppm by the end of this century if little is done to mitigate them. The global temperature would increase by about 5 °C and the oceans would be very acidic and much warmer which reduces the absorption of oxygen. They then become anoxia (dead) in stagnant equatorial regions and bad anaerobic bacteria can flourish which can produce hydrogen sulphide (H2S) that bubbles up. Hydrogen sulphide is toxic and kills plants and animals in the ocean and on the nearby land and this process is now attributed to three mass extinctions in the past. Hydrogen sulphide is also a GhG and hence the more that is produced the more there is that accumulates in the atmosphere causing warming and is another positive feedback loop. It also destroys the ozone in the stratosphere and the resulting enhanced UV radiation causes skin cancer and also reduces the plankton in the oceans. Such hydrogen sulphide eruptions now appear regularly in the warm coastal waters off Namibia and more blooms will occur in equatorial regions in the next few decades. Because of these toxic gases nearby coastal communities may have to be evacuated. An old UN report has found 200 dead regions in the oceans but a recent (2008) report indicates there are now about 450 dead hypoxic zones and hence is alarming and should be explored further. The dead zones kill all aquatic life and can initiate algae blooms. However, jellyfish can survive and thrive if the water is also polluted. There are now about two dozen dead coastal seas which have an abundance of various types of jellyfish.
These are all ominous signs of the first stage of a runaway global warming event. Runaway global warming events in the past have lasted for thousands of years and destroyed most forms of plant, animal and marine life. Mankind must now carefully manage (limit) the pollution in the oceans as well as the pollution and GhGs in the atmosphere and also conserve the Earth’s precious fossil fuel resources for future generations. Mankind must obviously reduce the level of GhGs ASAP and move to a sustainable environment. Note there are several vast gyres in the oceans which now contain large garbage pits about the size of Australia. Canada must also do its part for the oceans and cleanup numerous polluted rivers, estuaries and bays. PlascoEnergy of Ottawa have developed a very clean system to dispose of municipal waste by burning it at a very high temperature and separating out the heavy metal so that this system has no waste whatsoever. The hot gases produce about 5 MW of power per hundred tonnes of refuse and are essentially free to the municipality. Some cities still dispose of their waste in the oceans or leave it in piles that produce methane gas and such crude facilities should be immediately replaced by such a waste conversion facility.
The latter part of this century will be very difficult and by the end of this century fossil fuels will be very expensive. Mankind will probably see the demise of most accessible fossil based energy resources by about 2300 if little is done to reduce the rampant and uncontrolled burning of these fuels. Strategic fossil reserves should be set up in every country for use in the next century and to help keep prices up to encourage conservation. Fortunately the production of GhGs will be reduced with the demise of fossil resources and thereby might slowly bring on a more moderate climate, if we’re not already in a runaway global warming period. Eventually the GhGs will be absorbed by the oceans and any remaining forests and that will set the stage for the resumption of the next ice age. This may occur sometime in the latter part of this millennium depending on the availability of fossil fuels and the associated production of GhGs and ice coverage in the Polar Regions (see ‘Preventing another Ice Age’, EOS, 28 Nov., 2006). The Canadian high Arctic will be affected first and be covered by ice and snow throughout the summer and then a few decades later northern Russia and then eventually the northern part of the Scandinavian countries, Alaska and Canada. Ice ages can advance rapidly as they did during the four mysterious ‘little ice age’ periods in the Middle Ages. The onset of an ice age can occur with a modest greenhouse gas effect, full ice coverage in the Arctic Ocean and a strong polar vortex throughout the winters which should be further explored. Obviously, mankind should conserve as much fossil fuel as possible to mitigate global warming in this century and for use in the next couple of centuries to further delay, as much as possible, the onset of our ominous ice age. We are obliged to our children, grand children and all that follow us to keep planet Earth reasonably habitable and also with a sustainable economy.
About a third of the world's oil resources have now been consumed and the rest (about 2 trillion barrels conventional and another 2 trillion of shale and tar sands bitumen and estimates of new fields) will only last about 150+ years at the present rate of consumption (~85 million barrels per day). China is presently tying up oil contracts in most of the oil producing dictatorships which will exasperate the problem. The al-Qaeda is planning more attacks on the Arab Gulf oil industry and also on those in Canada and Venezuela to destabilize the West and the USA. Furthermore, the world production of oil is presently only about 0.5% greater than consumption and it is expected to peak in the next 30 years or so due to the demise of easy oil and will then start to decrease. Any conflicts and the reduced availability of this important resource will cause a dramatic increase in price and the limited supply may cause havoc and possibly social conflicts (wars) as there are only poor substitutes for oil. When demand exceeds supply in a few decades and the price escalates it will degrade productivity and the economy. However, the enhanced price will permit more expensive development and recovery and hence a little more production will probably be available. The International Energy Agency also calls for a marked reduction in the use of fossil fuels to reduce GhGs and for a more efficient, sound and sustainable economy and suggest that the supply of oil will be tight until at least 2015. Recent estimates of conventional and unconventional oil reserves and with secondary and tertiary recover methods indicate that a peak in global production may occur around 2050.
There is enough natural gas to last perhaps a century or so. However, NOAA estimate that Russia, Nigeria and other oil producing countries are flaring about 160 BCM of natural gas a year which should be curtailed in the very near future as the associated vast quantities of carbon dioxide are a strong GhG. There is also enough frozen gas hydrates to last a few centuries but the technology to develop them in the high Arctic and deep oceans may not be available for a few decades.
Coal can be converted to clean synthetic gas and it will be important in this and the next few centuries. There are about one trillion tonnes of accessible coal in the world or enough to last about 200 years. Advanced technologies are being pursued for the conversion of coal into reasonably clean energy by enhanced capturing and sequestering of the carbon by-products. A plant is presently being developed in Wyoming to make diesel fuel from coal but most of the 50 or more new power plants in the USA will not be clean. Alter NRG is also planning to build a $4.5 billion plant northwest of Edmonton to convert coal to produce 40,000 barrels per day of diesel and naphtha. The CO2 emission will be used to improve recovery in nearby mature oil fields. China is also planning to build numerous similar coal to liquid (CTL) plants. A new clean coal burning process called TIPS (Thermoenergy Integrated Power System) that burns pulverized coal cleanly under extreme oxygen pressure in a compact furnace has been demonstrated at the Canadian Centre for Mineral and Energy Technology facility in Ottawa. The emission are pure CO2 and can be stored underground (sequestration). Sask Power is to be commended for converting one of their old coal fired power stations near Estevan to this clean coal system and is building another clean coal power station. A similar process should be able to burn ‘fine droplets’ of hot bitumen and heavy oil under extreme pure oxygen pressure so that the tar sands plants and upgrader plants could operate in a much cleaner environment and also save precious natural gas and money. Most countries have many old dirty power plants and some have uncontrolled development of many new dirty power plants a year. They must be encouraged to update these thermal plants with the TIPS process or install carbon filters ASAP to reduce their considerable soot and GhG emissions.
There is an urgent need to
save fossil fuels for use in the next few centuries and to reduce GhGs ASAP to
mitigate global warming and melting of the polar ice fields and glaciers in
this century. Thermal power and heating plants and the production of
bitumen from the tar sands are significant sources of GhGs
in Canada. Large old thermal heating and generating system should have a
Carbon Filter Process to capture and remove these gases and other pollutants
which should be stored deep underground
or converted to calcite with peridotite. The CO2 emissions
can also be captured by amines. At low temperatures the CO2
and amines combine but at high temperature they separate. The emissions
can be captured by running then through an amine bath or mist and then warmed
to release the CO2 gas which can then be sequestered. Ammonia
and monoethanolamine (MEA) have both been used as
capture agents.
A new process for scrubbing carbon dioxide (CO2) from power-plant exhaust gases provides a more affordable option for the energy industry. The process, which is to be tested in Germany this summer (2009), promises to remove up to 90 percent of CO2 from flue gases while using far less energy than other methods. Existing carbon-capture methods reduce a plant's efficiency by about 11 percent. The new process, developed by Siemens, could reduce this efficiency loss to just 9.2 percent. A 25 meter-high column is used that gives off a solvent mist of MEA that reacts with CO2 under pressure. As the flue gases pass through the mist, the CO2 is chemically absorbed, leaving residual gases to pass out of the chimney. The CO2 can then be separated from the solvent, which can be reused.
Researchers in Wyoming have developed a low-cost carbon filter that can remove 90 percent of carbon dioxide gas from the smokestacks of electric power plants that burn coal and other fossil fuels. Maciej Radosz and colleagues at Wyoming's Soft Materials Laboratory cite the pressing need for simple, inexpensive new technologies to remove carbon dioxide from smokestack gases. Coal-burning electric power plants are major sources of the greenhouse gas. The study describes a new carbon dioxide-capture process, called a Carbon Filter Process, designed to meet such needs. It uses a simple, low-cost filter filled with porous carbonaceous sorbent that works at low pressures. Modeling data and laboratory tests suggest that the device works better than existing technologies and cost about $20 a tonne which is a fraction of their operating cost.
Researchers at Laval University have also developed a new method to capture CO2 using a biological enzyme catalyst which produces calcium carbonate, a cement making ingredient, in the process. CO2 Solutions is now commercializing this profitable process which could be implemented in most big stack industries. Researchers have also developed porous materials that can soak up 80 times their volume of carbon dioxide, offering the tantalizing possibility that the greenhouse gas could be cheaply scrubbed from power-plant smokestacks. A new sponge process and suitable plant might also be made to capture CO2 from the air and sequester it into the ground. Eprida have developed a method to turn the CO2 into hydrogen and a charcoal based fertilizer with their ECOSS process. Skyonic Corp. using the SkyMine™ process turns gaseous CO2 emissions into solid, stable carbonates (primarily sodium bicarbonate). A Canadian company says that it has developed a way for makers of precast concrete products to take all the carbon-dioxide emissions from their factories, as well as neighbouring industrial facilities, and store them in the products that they produce by exposing those products to carbon-dioxide-rich flue gases during the curing process. Carbon Sense Solutions of Halifax, say that their process would actually allow precast concrete to store carbon dioxide. The company takes advantage of a natural process; carbon dioxide is already reabsorbed in concrete products over hundreds of years from natural chemical reactions. Freshly mixed concrete is exposed to a stream of carbon-dioxide-rich flue gas, rapidly speeding up the reactions between the gas and the calcium-containing minerals in cement (which represents about 10 to 15 percent of the concrete's volume). The technology also virtually eliminates the need for heat or steam, saving energy and emissions.
Nets can also be installed on the top of high ridges and modest mountains to capture the dew and this will reduce the water vapor and also the dew will capture some of the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. This should be explored to determine the best nets and some suitable locations for them in Canada. The water in the saturated nets can be captured and piped into nearby dry fields, forests or creeks.
The atmosphere and oceans are vast sinks of energy and it will take a few centuries for them to return to normal temperature levels after the GhGs have been reduced to a sustainable level. Hence, it will now take at least a century or so for the climate to return to the previous state. Of course the GhGs will probably continue to increase for at least a few decades even with a concerted international effort to mitigate them. Consequently, mankind is already slated for a troubling wild and expensive ride to at least mid century and very probably much beyond.
The GhGs in the atmosphere must be stabilized ASAP; otherwise a runaway GhG scenario is possible. Dead ocean spots, toxic ocean algae blooms and gases and consequently mass evacuation from such regions lead to the eventual possibility of mass extinction. Mankind must reduce the consumption of fossil fuels as much as possible and as soon as possible in order to reduce the associated GhGs and to conserve these precious fuels for use in the latter half of this century and in the next century to further stall the onset of the next ice age. The GhGs in the atmosphere need to be first stabilized and then reduced to about 350 ppm to reestablish the polar cap ice fields and more moderate weather and climate. The global production of GhGs needs to be reduced by at least half over the next couple decades to limit melting of the polar ice fields and the associated first stage of a runaway warming. All the countries in each continent should work together to achieve this initial goal so that one country does not have an advantage over the others. By mid century the production of GhGs should be at most a gigatonne per continent and the average annual per capita emissions should be only a tonne or so and by the end of the century it should be about half a tonne so that the global production of GhG is only a couple of gigatonnes a year.
The USA and China each produce ~28% (~7.5 Gt) of the world’s GhGs and they are the most gluttonous countries and consequently need to reduce GhG emission by two thirds over the next few decades. Canadians have one of the highest per capita rates of GhG production and should also reduce emissions by two thirds. The per capita rate for Albertans and for Saskatchewans is an obnoxious 71 tonnes per year. This is a horrendous task for mankind and especially for North Americans but our offspring and grand offspring, who have rights to a fair and safe weather and climate and the fossil fuels, will need them even in a generation or so. They will certainly need them in the next century for transportation and a productive economy and later on for the production of some GhGs to further delay the onset of the next ice age. The power systems and all heating and transportation systems must be upgraded ASAP to minimize the use of fossil fuels. However, Canada and the Alberta government now have only modest guidelines and the modified Bill C-288 and Bill C-30 are both essentially dead. Canada must do its’ share ASAP and endeavor to meet its Kyoto commitment at least by 2020 and be part of the international effort to reduce GhGs and save fossil fuels. These effects, our high oil dollar and an aging population will strain the economy and reduce tax revenue. This and the U.S. mismanaged fiscal policy have caused an extended recession which may take a decade or so to recover in the U.S. Steps must soon be taken at all levels of government and industry to mitigate such calamities.
Obviously Canada must move ASAP to an efficient and clean electrical based economy. Quebec, Ontario, Manatoba and British Colombia are to be commended for having so much green hydro power and sharing it with other nearby provinces.
Presently about 110 Mt of emissions are produced annually in Canada for the production of electricity. This will be reduced in time but more should be done to reduce the GhGs ASAP. There is a new clean coal burning process called TIPS (Thermoenergy Integrated Power System) that burns pulverized coal cleanly under extreme pure oxygen pressure and has been demonstrated at the Canadian Centre for Mineral and Energy Technology facility in Ottawa. A demonstration plant is being built in Saskatchewan. These new thermal plants are much smaller than the old ones and it is expected that some of the old thermal power plants could be upgraded to this clean coal TIPS system and should be explored ASAP by the utilities with old coal powered generating systems. Otherwise one of the Carbon Filter or the amine methods mentioned above should be used to remove most of the carbon dioxide from the big stack emitters.
The vast number of dead trees in B.C. should be harvested ASAP before they go up in flames and the associated mass production of CO2. The good wood might be used for lumber and some for cellulosic ethanol or pulp and paper and the rest could be burned in a clean TIPS process to produce steam for power generation.
Nuclear energy should be used to supply the base load for a province and then hydro power supplemented by wind power while thermal power generation should only be used in peak or emergency conditions. Ontario Power Generation and Bruce Power plan to refurbish some of the old nuclear stations and build several additional nuclear generating plants are commendable. New Brunswick Hydro is also refurbishing its nuclear power plant and is planning to add one of the new ACR 1000 reactors to its mixed system of nuclear, thermal and hydro. Some of the new facilities might be near those cities that do not have a nearby secure source of power or where the waste heat could be used for industrial purposes. For instance, one nuclear reactor might be in Sarnia if the waste heat could be used to preheat the oil for the local refineries. Several cities in Canada are a considerable distance from power sources such as Ottawa and should have priority for a nearby hydro or nuclear facility to ensure some supply during tight or emergency conditions. Regina and Calgary should also consider having a nearby modest nuclear generating facility. The water that is used to cool the reactor might be piped to nearby ponds or insulated storage tanks so that it could be used to provide space heating with the aid of a heat pump in the winter. There should be some Federal and provincial support for these generating stations at the municipal level much the same as for any other major infrastructure.
There are about 5500 potential small hydro sites in Canada with a capability of generating about 11 GW of power. There is also a potential of about 135 GW of power from large hydro sites. However, only about 1 percent of the inquiries for developing hydro energy sources ever reach fruition because of unnecessarily strong environmental laws. Steps should be taken at both the Federal and Provincial levels to ensure that such laws are reasonable and every opportunity is provided to the developer of a remediation program for environmental concerns. The environmental and water way laws should be much the same as those for developing a highway right-of-way. At least a few gigawatts of green hydro power in Ontario are not being developed because of overzealous environmental and water way concerns. There are nearly 50 significant potential hydro sites in Quebec that could be developed and private developers should have access to some of these sites. It is suggested that the lower Churchill Falls in N.L be developed and super conducting or HVDC ‘designated’ lines be used to efficiently transmit the power directly to the Ontario Pickering nuclear station to first replace the thermal plants and eventually the old nuclear ones in Ontario. Designated interprovincial power lines are under the jurisdiction of the NEB and any disputes are resolved by this board.
Global warming will cause more erratic weather such as thunderstorms and droughts. Such conditions will trigger more forest fires so every river in forested regions should be scoured for suitable dam sites for water bombers and power generation as well as for recreational potential, irrigation and for flood control.
All the hydro sources in a province should be developed and used primarily during peak periods of demand as they are the only system that can store green energy. The big new bore hole around Niagara Falls to the Sir Adam Beck generating station will help optimize the Sir Adam Beck facility. However, the dirt from this excavation could be used for a 'natural' control dam with dikes and a road across the Niagara River a few kilometers east of Lake Erie. This could help to further optimize the aesthetic and hydro power use of the river and falls. The river is shallow so a dam should not be all that expensive. Lake Erie could then be used as a large reservoir to store the water for the summer tourist viewing season at the falls and for periods of high power demand. It would also benefit shipping and the many water front properties on the lake as it is expected to drop a metre or more during the next few decades of global warming. This improved control facility could provide a few extra gigawatts of power at the main generating facilities on each side of the river during peak demand periods. Furthermore, power generation is proportional to the square of the head or height of the water shed. Hence large pipes or a tunnel could carry some water from the dam along each side of the river (and rapids) down to additional generators just below the falls. The pipes could be under a promenade and sea wall along the side of the river. Tunnels could be made with a boring machine. This would provide an extra head of 100 or more feet and an additional few gigawatts of power on each side of the river.
Montreal could also benefit from a similar power generating system with a natural control dam and dikes just below Lac St. Louis. Large pipes along the canal or a tunnel could carry the water several kilometers downstream to just below the Lachine rapids and to generators. Such a system should be able to supply a gigawatt or so of nearby secure power for the City of Montreal and hence help mitigate the effects of another ice storm or other such disaster.
The global warming may also bring about longer periods of drought and some cities will have difficulty meeting their fresh water requirements. The flow in many of the rivers on the prairies is now half of what it once was. Hence dams should be considered by provincial and municipal authorities for cities with nearby modest rivers to ensure an adequate reservoir of water and additional hydro power during extended drought periods. Edmonton and some other prairie cities need to carefully consider their future requirements and sources.
A couple of modest dams
on the Fraser River near Hell's Gate could probably produce several gigawatts
of power and the 900 MW Site C should also be explored. At least some of
the green power in B.C. should be flowing into Alberta to help reduce its large
GhG emissions. Similarly, Manitoba Hydro with its significant green hydro
power should be helping Saskatchewan reduce its GhGs from thermal plants.
There are numerous potential power, water supply, flood control and recreation
sites in the foothills and northern regions of the western provinces which
should be explored.
The pollution of the Athabasca River and Lake Athabasca by the tar sands plants and their tailing ponds is of concern as is that caused by the oil refineries in Sarnia and in the adjacent St. Clair River. The heavy oil in these ponds can be removed with a mesh of “nanowires” composed of a chemical called potassium manganese oxide—each of which is a thousandth of the diameter of a human hair. The wires crisscross in a wavy pattern, forming pores within the mesh. These pores readily capture liquids, trapping those liquid molecules inside the mesh’s structure and thereby removing the oil.
More moisture laden Pacific storms could be moved into the dry interior of B.C. by harvesting the trees around Hope and at the eastern end of the fjords on the west coast. This will permit more of the coastal weather systems to more readily pass through the coastal mountain range rather than over it which causes rain or snow and hence removes much of the moisture.
There is also a large potential of wind power on both coasts and numerous other places (see Fed support at Wind Energy and wind energy maps) and tidal power in the Bay of Fundy. However, the energy from a wind farm can be irregular and a second supply system should be nearby to smooth out the power going to the main transmission system. This could be a carbon nanotube battery or a large liquid battery which could deliver a high current rate and is being developed at MIT. Alternatively, the generator at the top of a wind mill could have a variable speed air compressor or turbine attached to the free end of the drive shaft. The compressed air could be fed into the sealed steel support tower and pipes could link together the supply on a wind farm to a central air tank or nearby cave. A smart turbine and generator beside the tank could then supply additional power between wind burst and thereby smooth out the supply of power from the wind farm. There is a significant amount of energy on both coasts in the large waves and a new machine has been developed that could capture this energy.
Note there is a very large potential of solar power in the southwestern USA (see Sci. Am., Jan, 2008) which should be explored. SolarReserve are planning on a large array of mirrors to focus the sun on a tower with molten salt that is heated to about 565 °C. It can then be stored in insulated tanks and used at night or other times to provide steam for power generation. Spain has the first such system of mirrors and a tower which produces about 50 MW of power. Such systems would complement the variable solar and wind power systems in southern Alberta and elsewhere. The rich Alberta government should provide incentives for such clean renewable power much like those of the Ontario government.
There are numerous warm shallow geothermal regions in Alberta and Saskatchewan which can be tapped for space heating. However, there are probably several deep hot geothermal regions in Canada which could be used for making steam for power generation. These have not been explored but should be ASAP by the GSC so that these “renewable” sources could be utilized for space heating and clean power generation.
There is only a 9 year reserve of natural gas in Canada which is presently essential for the production of steam for the separation of the heavy bitumen from the tar sands in northern Alberta. Atomic Energy Canada Limited (AECL) is now in partnership with Bruce Power exploring a modified ACR1000 reactor to provide power, hydrogen and a steam cogeneration facility for heating the tar sands for the extraction of the bitumen. Such a facility would reduce the large amounts of greenhouse gases and pollution now caused by the thermal plants for the tar sands processing and upgrader plants. A cogeneration facility should be very profitable as power is expensive in Alberta. It would also conserve the large amount of natural gas that is presently being wasted for heating water to 40 C for processing the tar sands. Natural gas is also essential for the production of fertilizer which is critical for a viable agriculture industry in Canada and for inexpensive food production for numerous countries. The new Alberta government is to be commended for constructing a pipeline from Ft. McMurray to Edmonton for the sequestration of the GhGs captured from the tar sands plants. This will help the production of oil from the nearby heavy oil formations.
The Canadian CANDU reactors use natural uranium and hence are safer than the vast majority that use enriched uranium. However, the new ACR1000 reactor uses slightly enriched fuel and is more efficient than most other reactors. It can also burn thorium and the reprocessed fuel from common light water reactors. Note, most of the uranium is mined in Saskatchewan and the Federal government should help develop an advanced nuclear refining process in the province rather than sending it abroad. There is presently only enough uranium to supply about 1000 nuclear reactors to the end of this century. Russia, China and India have each embarked on a major nuclear building program and the increased demand for enriched uranium will put a tremendous strain on the market. The Chinese and Russians are also in every potential uranium producing country tying up long term supplies. Production may not meet demand and the price, which is now (summer 2007) about $130 a pound, is expected to continue to escalate.
There is a problem with all
these thermal neutron nuclear reactors and that is they only use about 5% of
the energy in the fuel. This causes a large disposal problem which also
has a very long lifetime (~10,000 years). Canada has yet to establish
such a disposal site. It is possible to recycle the spent fuel by prompt
on-site pyrometallurgical processing. This recycled fuel from the light
water reactors can be burned in the old CANDU reactors and also in the new
ACR1000 reactor. Any new ACR1000
reactors should be setup to burn this type of fuel as it will then make better
use of the uranium and save the considerable cost of storing it in a safe place
for next 10,000 years. OPG, if it
acquires these reactors might then explore with the U.S. about using their
reprocessed nuclear fuel for a token fee.
France has been reprocessing its nuclear fuel for many years with an expensive process for use in fast breeder reactors. This reprocessed fuel can also be burned in advanced fast neutron reactors which can capture more of the energy. These new advanced liquid metal reactors (ALMR) are somewhat different than conventional reactors and it would take time to develop them. However, this method significantly reduces the amount of nuclear fuel used and the amount that has to be stored in secure long term underground facilities. It is also a much safer technology and this reprocessed spent fuel has a much shorter storage time (~500 years). France and Russia reprocess their nuclear fuel and India, China and the US are investigating such techniques and reactors. China will started such a small reactor in 2009. AECL should explore this new technology and probably develop both a modest prototype ALMR reactor and possibly the special electro refining procedure and facility (see Sci. Am. Dec 2005 and Physics Today Dec 2006). However, this is expensive technology so Canada (AECL) might explore cooperating with France or the USA in the Global Nuclear Energy Partnership which is an international plan to eventually develop such advanced burner reactors in order to reuse the regular spent but still hot fuel.
Several different types of natural events, human errors and economic conditions can lead to extended periods of power outages. These events can initiate hazardous conditions in urban regions and sometimes life threatening situations as well as serious economic loss. Cities in deregulated regions or regions with limited supply are now somewhat on their own for power. Major power outages can also malign the reputation of a city or a province and the utility. The effects of such events can be mitigated with contingency planning and the implementation of nearby modest and secure generating systems. In particular, cities need to ensure that a modest nearby secure supply is available that can be switched around the city to mitigate the effects of an extended outage which could lead to a disaster.
Besides the normal summer
storms perhaps the most destructive weather systems on power transmission lines
are high winds and ice storms. Global warming will cause more erratic
weather such as more intense thunderstorms, ice storms, tornadoes and
hurricanes, and longer droughts. The January 1998 ice storm in eastern
Canada devastated the power distribution systems in eastern Ontario and in
western Quebec. Unfortunately, most of Montreal was without power for
three weeks and some parts on the south shore for more than five weeks because
all the lines were down going into Montreal. Conditions were difficult in
Montreal as there was not a nearby secure power source that could be switched
about the city and thus provide more tolerable conditions. About 25
people died in Montreal and 2 in Ottawa as a result of the power outage and
sever conditions of the ice storm. Hurricane Juan devastated Halifax in
2004 and much of the city was without power for several days. However, no
lives were lost as it was during the fall and the temperature was
tolerable. As global warming is expected to increase the frequency and
strength of such storms (see IPCC reports), the utilities should be prepared
for strong winds and heavy icing events on power lines and the cold snaps which
generally follow such storms. They should also have some line deicing
capability.
Much of urban Canada is near the auroral zone where, at times, large currents flow in the upper atmosphere in conjunction with expanding auroral displays during solar storms. These currents induce telluric currents into the earth’s crust which will flow into grounded systems such as power transmission facilities. The induced currents are irregular and can be large and when they happen to be aligned with a power line the flow in the lines will be enhanced and, at such times, can heat and stress the transformers causing them to trip out. Such an event happened in Quebec on March 13, 1989 and the province was without power for about nine hours. Hydro Quebec has since installed large and expensive (several billion dollars) series capacitors on many of their long lines but Ontario's Hydro One and other transmission systems appear to have done little to mitigate such events. Rare superstorms can cause significantly more damage and more should be done to mitigate the effects. The author has demonstrated some time ago that these induced telluric currents can now be modeled in real-time from magnetic observatory data so that their extent and orientation can be monitored (see the Space Weather article at http://pages.istar.ca/~jwalker). Hence, timely reduction of the power in lines near or parallel to significant telluric currents and monitoring of the transformers could reduce the effects of such enhanced telluric currents on the transmission system and thereby the risk of failure of the transformers and outages.
The Ottawa and St Lawrence valleys are moderate seismic risk areas and the B.C. coast is slated for a major event in the next 100 years or so. Earthquakes in these regions could damage nearby power-generating stations and also dams, which often have generating facilities. Cities that are dependent on these sources for power could be in difficulty during an earthquake unless they have additional lines from other sources or a standby generating facility. Cities that are entirely dependent on power from such sources should have a modest (~20% of peak requirements) alternative source that can be switched around the city in the event of an earthquake completely disrupting the hydro service.
Accidents at generating stations such as those at Three Mile Island in Pennsylvania, Chernobyl in the Ukraine and tardy maintenance at some of the nuclear and thermal stations can lead to extended periods of brownouts and sometimes outages. Following the privatization of the power system in New Zealand the new management blew the 3 main transformers for Auckland and the city was without power for about six weeks. Ontario is directly interconnected with the US Northeast power distribution system, which failed on Aug. 14th 2003 from poor maintenance and control by First Energy of Ohio. Much of Ontario was without power for nearly a week. The stability of these transmission lines has improved significantly nevertheless the operating standards in the US are political and somewhat voluntary. Hence Ontario's Hydro One and other such utilities should probably isolate major connections with the US with AC-DC-AC converter systems at the border, much like Quebec has done. Such system will prevent shorts or large surges from the US coming into the provincial systems and disrupting the facilities.
Outages stemming from
terrorist attacks are probably a small, but not insignificant risk, as generating
stations are fairly robust structures and security has been improved following
the Sept.11th, 2001 terrorist event in New York City. However, three
security incidences have recently been reported by the Canada’s Nuclear Safety
Commission. Australia has recently apprehended some terrorists planning
to attack their nuclear power station in Sidney. Iran is expected to have
a nuclear weapon in a year or so. Monitoring should probably be increased
around critical facilities. A high altitude station keeping UAV or stratellite can monitor large regions including
the power lines and other important facilities of a city and should be
considered in sensitive urban regions. The NATO forces might explore the
benefits of such airships or powered unmanned gliders above active communities
in Afghanistan.
Large ultra capacitors and CNT batteries are now being developed so that they could be used to reduce short term drops in supply from wind and solar cell farms. These could also be used with any transmission system or AC-DC-AC converter or with a DC generator to mitigate the expensive cost of short term failures in these systems.
About 40% of Ontario's Power Generating (OPG's) capacity will have to be retired over the next decade or so. The McGuinty government plans to build two more nuclear reactors have been jeopardized by their high cost of $27 billion per unit for a 20 year capital and operating costs. However, several of the old nuclear stations are being refurbished but more will probably be needed to replace this loss. Bruce Power was also planning to refurbish some old reactors and possibly build four new reactors but again the plans are in disarray. Hence, the supply of power over the next decade or so may be tight at times. Furthermore, the generating utilities can now sell 15% of their capacity outside the province. Both Quebec and Ontario are to be commended for new large wind farms and hydro developments and Ontario for significant incentives for small green developers.
Good interprovincial connections, as first suggested by the author in 2004 to some ministers and premiers, can reduce the need for a large overhead of generating capacity for peak and emergency requirements. The concept has recently been adopted by the Council of the Federation and now involves a larger and more complicated agreement to improve the interprovincial and export transmission and transportation systems for the power, oil and gas sectors. Progress was also made last summer at a meeting in Whitehorse to share the costs with the federal and provincial governments and industry for new technology and information. Fortunately, PM Harper fingered green power grids for ecoTrust funding and Ontario ($586 million) and Manitoba ($53 million) both got some support. The new (April 26, 2007) Regulatory Framework for Air Emissions included a specific paragraph supporting the use of climate change technology for a cross country power grid.
The use of expensive smart meters to reduce peak power consumption should first be implemented for industries and commercial facilities and other higher energy users. They should be used only as a last resort by governments for households and even such use is questionable. The $1 billion cost of the meters for Ontario could buy about 500 megawatts of power generation facilities which could meet most of the peak demand. A less expensive way is to have the retail price reflect the estimated real cost on a monthly basis as it varies considerably over the year. Such a monthly rate could be advertised so the user knows what to expect and hence can govern use depending on the cost and thereby reduce peak demand. However, if such meters are to be installed in residential places they should also be able to monitor the household water meter, fire alarms and possibly security devices.
The local distribution utilities in Ontario cannot enter into long-term contracts with suppliers and during tight conditions expensive power will have to be imported. Such power may be unavailable at times as happened in California and Alberta a few years ago. Some cities are now somewhat on their own as there is no effective agency to oversee the long-term supply of power in some provinces such as Alberta. Hence it is important that the local distributing utility have a nearby or standby generating facility in order to meet such contingency conditions. The local utilities near provincial boundaries should be able to have long term contracts to import power directly from a supplier in the adjacent province or state without having to go through a central control such as Ontario's Hydro One Networks or the IESO. However, Ontario has one of the best power utilities in Canada that mixes both public and private power generation into one system and other provinces might consider a similar structure. Alberta and Quebec should both explore public operating and transmission systems much like Ontario’s IESO and Hydro One. Power in Quebec is heavily subsidized and the low cost breeds’ inefficiency as the per capita consumption is nearly twice that in Ontario. Many dwellings and commercial facilities in Quebec use inefficient resistance heating. These facilities should all be upgraded with heat pumps which would save a few GWs of power. Two stage heat pumps which are efficient down to -25 C and should be used in the north and eastern regions. HQ is also very inefficient, as the Garcia report indicates and should be split into several utilities like those in Ontario with an open market for power.
Many of the cities in Canada obtain their power from remote generating stations and consequently they may be subject to one or more of the above risks. One way to reduce the risk of an outage is to obtain power from several different stations along different routes. Nevertheless an ice storm can sever the supply from numerous routes into the city as it did in Montreal. Hence it is important that a city have a nearby secure generating and transmission facility that could provide at least 10% (~2 hours per day) of its requirements so that such power could be switched (in blocks) about the city throughout the emergency period. The facility should be large enough to provide power at least twice a day for an hour or more to keep homes, factories and commercial places above freezing in the dead of a Canadian winter (-30 °C) so that basic habitation would be possible. However, a supply of ~20% of normal requirements - 4 hours and 4 times per day would provide more tolerable living conditions. This power station and the associated transmission lines should be under the direct control of the local hydro distribution utility. Hence the cities should have first choice in the sale of nearby provincial power stations, particularly thermal (polluting) plants, in order to establish a more secure power system that could also be used to mitigate local smog conditions.
The Electricity Act in Ontario restricts the local distributors from entering into long-term contracts with the producers, which is inconsistent with market forces. This will bring the market into higher volatility than is necessary and possibly destabilize the system during peak demands such as in California in the summer of 2000. These factors are inconsistent with the needs of both Ontario’s industries and communities to be efficient in the new competitive global economy. It is suggested that this restriction be removed to permit the local hydro distribution utilities to enter into long term contracts for at least half of their requirements or their base load. Furthermore, the Act also restricts the suppliers from owning transmissions facilities, which is like ordering CN and CP rail to not acquire any railway tracks. Such naïve legislation possibly increases the risk to the suppliers and the costs to the consumer. This limitation should also be reconsidered. At least some of the revenue from the sale of the generating stations and the transmission lines should go to paying down Ontario Hydro's ~$20 billion stranded debt.
Smart and Self-healing Power Transmission Systems
The provinces in central and eastern Canada should explore forming their own power distribution system which would probably be more stable than the US Northeast one. Hydro Quebec, with the help of some extra lines and power from Ontario, should also explore changing the phase of its power system to the North American standard. The HQ power could then be exchanged directly and efficiently with border hydro systems rather than having to use expensive AC-DC-AC converters as it does at present. Such a changeover could be done in stages during a period of low power consumption. However, HQ and Hydro One are to be commended for a new 1.2 GW link east of Ottawa which should be operational in 2009 when the installation of the converter is completed.
The three Maritime Provinces should explore developing a common transmission system and independent marketing agent much like that in Ontario. Ontario, Quebec, N.L. and the Maritime provinces should also consider developing an optimized but resilient and smart self-healing power grid (see Sci. Am. May 2007). This requires real-time monitoring of every node in the grid so that it is aware of any nascent trouble and can reconfigure itself to resolve any problem. Such a super smart power grid would probably cost several billion to develop. The eastern grid should extend to Labrador, Newfoundland, P.E.I. and to Cape Breton where there are numerous potential wind sites. It should be optimized to reduce the use of thermal power and could probably eventually save ~25 Mt of emissions per year. It would also reduce the incidence of natural or terrorist initiated blackouts.
The four western provinces should also develop a smart self-healing network with links to Vancouver Island and along the windy B.C. coast. Both the east and west grids should have Federal support as they would be an interprovincial facility much like the TransCanada Highway. They both extend in the east-west direction across one or more time zones and hence are ideal for supplying the time shifting noon or evening peak loads as it moves westward with the demand. These distribution systems could also be optimized to minimize reserve generation, retail costs and the production of greenhouse gases at thermal generating plants and be self-healing. The power should be shared with others provinces at a true or fair cost.
Quebec should not be holding the N.L. Lower Churchill Fall’s power hostage as it did in the past and continues to do with its proposed dams and generation facilities on the North Shore which will block further development of the Lower Falls. The tainted billion dollars HQ rakes in from the Upper Falls facility should be included in its Equalization fund. It is suggested that HQ be separated into different utilities for power generation, transmission, marketing and planning much like that now in place in Ontario and recommended in a recent report by C. Garcia. There should be a liberalization of power generation and distribution in Canada much like that being developed in Europe but more focused on a policy commons of clean energy and cooperation. The Federal government needs to arrange for an interprovincial ‘energy highway’ that encourages sharing of such resources first, above exports, and prohibits the further blackmailing of transprovincial transmission systems. The east and west grids should each save several gigawatts of thermally produced power and thereby reduces the associated GhGs by eventually 50 Mt or so annually.
The interprovincial grids could also be used, in the Canadian tradition, as a way for the have not provinces to pay back the have provinces (Ontario and Alberta) some of the generous equalization funds (12 billion dollars) hijacked by the Federal government and unfortunately abused by several provinces. Studies have shown the funds have not improved productivity in the have not provinces and territories. The Harper enhanced equalization plan is overly generous and it certainly needs to be revamped. Most of these funds should be used for agreed upon green or clean energy projects for the next few decades.
Up to ten percent of the power is lost in the transmission of power over long distances. DCHV transmission is somewhat more efficient than AC over long distances. However, it is now technically possible to build supercables (see Sci. Am. July 2006, Sept 2006 and Supergrid 2) that can efficiently transport energy in both electrical and chemical forms. The electrical energy would travel nearly resistance-free through pipes made of a superconducting material. Chilled hydrogen flowing as a liquid inside these conductors would keep their temperature near absolute zero so they would be superconductors. This conductor would be surrounded by a thick thermal insulator. The hydrogen is generated and compressed into a liquid at the power station and then pumped into the conductor. The hydrogen could be used to power clean fuel cell equipped public transit buses, light rail systems and other vehicles in the cities at the end of each transmission line. A supercable would consist of two such conductors and each would be nearly a metre in diameter. A typical supercable would be capable of carrying several gigawatts of DC power and about 10 gigawatts of thermal power (chilled hydrogen). Newer superconducting material (YBCO) can work at liquid nitrogen temperatures (-196 C) and the cables are much smaller. New York City is presently installing such transmission cables (project Hydra) to connect two substations and second generation high temperature super conducting wires are now commercially available. Three pilot projects now underway in the U.S. are demonstrating superconducting cables as well as in other countries. Superconducting cables can also be used to make more efficient motors, generators and transformers. Superconducting motors, which can generate three times the torque of a conventional motor of the same weight and power input, are ideal for powering ships and possibly large blended wing airplanes with the electricity being generated by light fuel cells or stored with ultra capacitors. The power utilities should explore the possibility of superconducting generators as they would be more efficient than conventional generators and the current could be inserted right into superconducting cables.
It is suggested that Canada develop some prototype superconducting cables between a major generating station and a nearby large consumer. This could be between the Sir Adam Beck station below Niagara Falls and Hamilton with its power hungry steel mills and blast furnaces. The Federal government should provide most of the support for this prototype supergreen project. Eventually this supercable should probably extend to the Churchill Falls generating stations in Labrador. Quebec could also benefit from such supercables linking the James Bay generating stations with a supercable to Ottawa and to Montreal. Manitoba Hydro has a long DC line from Gillam to Winnipeg which might also be upgraded to a supercable. A similar supercable should eventually connect Gillam, MB to Vancouver, probably along much of the Yellowhead route. Eventually, the eastern and western grids might be connected with a supercable across western Ontario. These supercables will each save nearly a gigawatt of power and would be the backbone of Canada’s clean electrical and hydrogen power systems. They would also save a few megatonnes of GhGs annually.
A novel way to transport significant amounts of power could be with new ultra capacitors or liquid batteries and large vessels. EEStor have developed an ultra capacitor that can store energy three times the density of lithium ion batteries and it can be charged in a few minutes. It can store 280 watt hours per kilogram and will be in production in 2010. A laker vessel can carry about 70X106 kilograms so it could carry about 20X109 watt hours of power and could be charged up in about a day from a 1 GW generator. The AC to DC converter could be on the boat so that it could pick up power at any remote site and then the converter reversed to deliver AC power directly to a cities’ distribution system. This method could be used to ship power from very remote coastal power sites such as in N.L to eastern coastal markets or the Great Lakes load regions for critical periods. Note, salt water is a semiconductor so every precaution would have to be taken in the event of a storm or accident flooding the hold.
The enhanced temperatures due to the increase in greenhouse gas production from the burning of fossil fuels will also reduce agricultural and forest production. The Martin government wisely set aside $5 billion in the 2005-06 budget for support of the Kyoto accord to reduce greenhouse gas emissions but the Harper government has slashed these funds. Mankind must reduce fossil fuel use and the associated GhGs to mitigate global warming ASAP in this century and to conserve as much as possible our oil, gas and coal resources for use in the next few centuries. It is important that as much as possible be available for use in the next few centuries for farming, transportation and for greenhouse gas production to further delay the onset of our ominous and impending ice age. This may occur by about the middle of the millennium if most of the fossil fuels are depleted in this century and the next, or latter, if mankind is lucky with finding more fossil fuels and controlling and conserving GhGs. Every method must be used to conserve fossil fuels and reduce GhGs in this century. Fossil fuels should not be used for space heating or power generation as other methods are available. Obviously, Canada must do its part. In particular, it must establish emission reduction limits for industry ASAP. It should probably consider adopting many of the EU or California standards to simplify implementation for industry. This should eventually save about a third of the GhGs associated with residential, commercial and industrial facilities or ~40 Mt or so a year.
The processing of the oil sands around Ft. McMurray in Alberta is leaving a horrific mess of the land and water and only a tiny bit has been refurbished. The reported emissions by the producers are based on an old method which often underestimates the emissions by a factor of 20 or so and should be updated ASAP. The Cumulative Environmental Management Association (CEMA) has announced a three zone Ecosystem Management Framework for the Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo. The Plan protects the environment while enabling oil sands development and maintaining social and cultural needs of Albertans. Woodland Caribou, Black Bear, Native Fish, Moose, Old Growth Birds, Fisher, and Old Forests are expected to decline with continued development in the region, in the absence of management intervention. Modeling results demonstrate that strategies are available to manage impacts and this Plan provides strong recommendations on ways to prevent a decline of the environment. CEMA encourages regulators to move forward immediately with key elements of the Framework towards full implementation by 2011. However, the plan should limit development to at most 1.5 million barrels a day for the next several years so that remediation can catch up with the scouring of the land and to take pressure of the Canadian dollar for the struggling industries in the east. The Alberta Government should do the right thing and implement this plan forthwith. This government has however, recently earmarked 2 billion for the transportation and sequestration of GhGs and another 2 billion for public transit. Bravo Premier Stelmack.
The Petroleum Technology Alliance of Canada and the ICO2N alliance are to be commended for initiating a program to capture the CO2 from the Edmonton refineries and other sources and transport it several hundred kilometers via pipelines to enhance the recovery of the oil in some old fields in the foothills of western Alberta. The Alberta government is also exploring a possible pipeline from the Ft. McMurray tar sand plants to Edmonton for sequestration of the GhGs in the nearby old oil fields. It is also going to start charging $15 a tonne for CO2 emission to 100 or so major GhG emitters this July (07). Similar plans should be considered for the refineries in Sarnia to capture and transport the CO2 to the very old oil fields in nearby Petrolia and for the Irving refineries in Saint Johns, N.B. The cost of these long pipelines can be significant so governments might provide some support.
The National Energy Board should work with the provinces to set aside about half of Canada's accessible fossil fuel resources as reserves for use in the latter part of this century and in the next century. These reserves will be essential at that time for transportation and hence for the economy and for the production of GhGs to further stall the onset of the next ice age. Hence the processing of the Alberta tar sands should be limited to no more than 3 million barrels per day so that the “accessible” bitumen reservoirs would then last for 80-190 years. However, it is desirable to have a large supply of fossil fuels at the end of the next century for transportation, security and for the production of GhGs to keep the next ice age at bay. Hence, it is recommended that the production from the tar sands be limited to about 1.5 million barrels per day for the next decade or so until improved clean environmental methods are developed and a firm estimate can be made of all the world’s fossil fuel reserves and their depletion rates. The industry has adequate resources these days and can afford Carbon Filters or scrubbers or nuclear cogenerating systems to save at least a third of the associated GhGs or ~20 Mt a year. The Pembina Institute estimates that it would cost only a few dollars per barrel to capture and store the GhGs from either the surface mining or underground processes for extracting the bitumen. Some recent research into new clean and efficient methods of processing the tar sands are promising and both the Federal and Provincial governments should fully support such initiatives.
The consumption of gasoline in North America is twice that in Europe and still increasing at ~2% a year despite the doubling of price in the last two years. However, it has decreased about 5% in 2008 with the higher prices for gasoline and the slow economy in the US. Obviously the price needs to be increased even further too significantly reduce demand. One way to reduce consumption is to limit supply to keep prices up. This is better than rationing or having escalating prices when supply cannot meet demand which will probably occur in a few years. This would probably require legislation or very good cooperation with the producers. Russia is now cooperating with OPEC to reduce supply when prices fall. Canada should also work with the other fossil fuel producing countries to limit the supply to just a percent or so above the demand so that the price will generally remain high and hence help to reduce consumption. To achieve this end Canada and Norway should consider joining OPEC as observers to promote clean production, conservation and cooperation among the different producers. There was a glut of oil in the winter of 2006-07 and the prices were dropping so OPEC wisely reduced the supply by 1.2 million barrels per day (3%). They have recently reduced supply by about 5 mbd to sustain prices during the recession. Canada should follow suit by asking the conventional oil producers to reduce supply by 2% and the dirty tar sand producers by about 5% during over ample supply periods.
There is only a nine year reserve of natural gas in Canada. A reserve of two decades or more should gradually be established by the National Energy Board much like the U.S. oil reserves in Alaska and other countries to mitigate any disaster in the agriculture (fertilizer), power generating and tar sands/heavy oil industries. Canada should have a modest 'well-head' hydrocarbon tax of a few dollars per tonne of GhGs to reduce the local and export demand for such energy and the associated production of GhGs. This should be implemented when the price of oil, natural gas or coal drops substantially to keep the price up and hence reduce demand. Canada should also cooperate with other coal exporting countries, such as Australia, to limit supply when the price of coal is sliding.
The accelerated capital cost allowance (ACCA) for rapid tar sands development should be reduced to 50% for a couple of years and then to 25%, the same as for conventional exploration. While Premiers Campbell and Charest are to be commended for implementing a GhG tax, such taxes should, of course, be at the Federal level so that it is fair to all provinces. These tax resources should then be split with the producing provinces and used solely to subsidize any new nuclear or green generating facilities and for scrubbers for thermal heating and generating plants and for the new ecoENERGY program. However, the Harper government again reduced the climate change programs in Agriculture Canada and Natural Resources Canada by another $500 million this past year. It is important that ever government agency have adequate resources to implement GhG reduction programs in its domain.
The carbon dioxide can be removed by TIFF clean combustion method or else it can be scrubbed with amines or a Carbon Filter used at all the 600 or so large thermal power and heating plants in Canada ASAP. The carbon dioxide can be compressed into a liquid and temporally stored in insulated tanks then shipped by insulated truck or rail tanks and then stored in underground heavy oil reservoirs to help with their production or in deep porous geological formations. It costs only 1-3 cents/kWh to remove the carbon dioxide so this can readily be managed by most industries and hydro utilities or passed on to the users. It could then be released in a few centuries to enhance the GhGs and thereby increase the global warming and thus help to further delay the onset of the next ice age (see Scientific America, March and July, 2005).
Following the EU, a cap and trade system for GhGs is now operational on the Montreal climate exchange for NAFTA partners to assist industry in moving to the clean economy and to be fair for all trading partners. The initial tax for excess GhGs could be about $10 per tonne and rising by $5 a year to the EU price. Alberta is to be commended for a new, albeit weak, plan to charge $15 a tonne for GhGs this year for the large emitters and other provinces should do the same. Australia, China and India should be encouraged to have similar systems. There should also be an export tax of several dollars per tonne of GhG if the receiving country/agency cannot guarantee the fossil fuel will be scrubbed of GhGs and soot when burned. This tax should be shared with the producing province.
The production of oil is now about equal to the consumption and the recent rapid increase in oil prices will probably continue and cause a recession in the world economy. The impending runaway warming may eventually devastate Canada's economy and the demise of most fossil fuels will trigger the next ice age which will smother most of Canada. Steps should be taken ASAP to mitigate these major threats to Canada's northern hinterland. Both the Federal and provincial governments should implement measures to rapidly move from our present abuse of fossil fuel resources to a frugal one within the next couple of decades if at all possible. Canada should also modify NAFTA to free itself from the onerous energy-sharing provisions with the anti-Kyoto US in order to have control of the production, conservation and dissemination of our precious hydrocarbon resources.
The oceans absorb about half of the carbon dioxide and as part of photosynthesis trees also absorb carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. However, over time many of the forest have been removed and consequently there should be extensive reforestation in Canada and elsewhere. The Forest Stewardship Council is an international organization that fosters good forest management and has certified more than 78 million hectares of forest in 82 countries. The forest industry should follow these guidelines if possible. Conservation efforts should be made to preserve most of the great Canadian boreal forest. Further efforts should be made to establish forests in arid regions (Pew report), such as the prairies, with hardy trees. While this is primarily a provincial jurisdiction the Federal government should provide some support and research as it did in the past. The diseased and old trees should be harvested first, of course. For each healthy tree that is harvested at least three additional trees should be planted by the lumber and pulp and paper industries. There should also be a modest GhG tax on lumber and pulp and paper products to reduce their consumption until the atmospheric carbon dioxide level is acceptable (~350 ppm). Provinces should provide low cost bedding trees for municipalities and small lot tree farmers. The trees could be harvested in the next century for lumber and paper production and the waste used for wood pellets which would probably be needed for the production of GhGs.
The enhanced weather will cause more thunderstorms and lightening and hence more forest fires (also see IPCC 2nd report) and the associated vast amounts of GhGs. B.C. is particularly vulnerable with half of the province now covered with dead or dying trees. The provinces should consider having available a few more of Bombardier 415 water bombers. Bombardier might also explore developing a stretched water bomber using the more powerful PW150A 7000 shp engine or a larger bomber with the new EPI TP400-D6 (10,000 shp) engine. National Defense should also equip a few of the old Hercules C130 aircraft with bladders and crew so that they could be used to spread the new red foam fire retardant and thereby help to control the larger forest fires. They should also explore the purchase of a few new efficient A400 heavy lift turboprop transports as they have a low speed capability and could also be equipped with bladders. They might also be equipped with scoopers and used as super water bombers. Such enhanced fire fighting support could probably save a large amount of forest (CO2 absorbers and the lumber industry money) and possibly 10 Mt or so of GhGs annually.
Homes and commercial facilities can now be very efficient. Many homes and some commercial and industrial facilities are still using fossil fuels and/or electrical resistance heating which is very inefficient and produces GhGs in the provinces with dirty power. Over 8 million tonnes of home heating oil are used for space heating each year which produce about 20 million tonnes of GhGs. These facilities should be identified and the owners encouraged to improve the insulation and upgrade to a heat pump heating and cooling system.
Central forced air system or a ductless heat pump system or a solar collector system are now available. Some heat
pumps now have heating efficiencies (HSPF) of 11 or 300+% better than
resistance heating when the temperature is somewhat above freezing.
Regular heat pumps are still more efficient than direct resistance heating down
to about -15 °C while some high efficiency
two stage units can now produce adequate heating to -25 °C when direct resistance
heating might be used for small buildings on very cold days. These
systems can reduce the amount of fossil fuel used for heating by about 80% in
southern Canada and cost only a few hundred dollars or so more than an air
conditioner. A smart heat pump with an insulated storage system is even
more efficient and could significantly reduce the peak demand for hydro.
It would cool the stored fluid (ethylene glycol) during summer nights but heat
it during winter days so that this stored energy is used at peak cooling or
heating times. This stored energy should be enough for at least a day so
that some of it is used the next day or night when the outside ambient
temperature is highest in the summer or coldest during winter. A salt
water swimming pool could also be used to store heat during winter but it would
have to be enclosed and well insulated. Such smart systems could free up
a significant amount of hydro power and also reduce the amount of green house
gases for space heating by ~90% or ~20 Mt per year. Note in a recent
extensive study of the US
system for abating GhG they still recommend burning natural gas for space
heating and power generation which of course enhances the GhG problem.
Menova and Amonix energy have both recently developed a tracking solar concentrator (mirrors) that can provide 70% or more of the heating and some electric power. The units are large but still suitable for large homes, institutions, commercial and industrial facilities with flat roofs or an open area. With a large storage system the units can provide perhaps 95% of the heating and power. Such solar concentrators could also be combined with a heat pump to utilize the excess solar heating and thereby improve the efficiency of the heat pump in winter. Combined with a storage system for heating in winter and cooling in summer, such a system would probably provide all the heating and cooling for larger buildings. Efficient sun tracking solar cells (also see MIT techrev) are also being developed that could provide some electrical power to homes and other structures. Gas, coal, wood pellets or resistance heating should be used only as a last resort for extended periods of very cold and cloudy weather. This conversion program should be supported by both the Federal and provincial governments. Ontario and Quebec Hydro now match the rebate on the Federal government's EnerGuide home and industry efficiency programs. The Harper government has finally introduced a similar ecoENERGY retrofit program for homes and industry. The heating system should also be upgraded to a heat pump and/or solar collector and the appliances and lighting should also be checked by the inspector to ensure they are all reasonably efficient.
All new homes, institutional and commercial facilities, including airports, should be built to the R2000 or the new EQuilibrium Housing or the LEED bronze standard to minimize the energy requirements for heating and cooling. They should also have a heat pump with storage and probably a solar collector so additional space heating energy would only be required during extended cold and cloudy periods. CMHC are supporting 12 such projects. This additional heating could be electric resistance heating in the southern parts of Canada. Only in mid and high latitudes should fossil fuel be used for supplementary space heating if resistance heating is expensive. These new standards should be reflected in a new set of NRC’s building codes ASAP (within a year if possible) and then all provinces must adopt and implement them. The next step for a government is to have all municipalities survey all residential, commercial and industrial facilities with infrared cameras to check for inefficient buildings. The owners of the inefficient structures should then be advised to have an ecoENERGY assessment and then encouraged to upgrade the insulation and heating systems to a minimum national standard. The roofs of dwelling and other buildings should be white and/or shinny aluminum and rated to reflect the solar radiation back into space; otherwise it is absorbed and hence converted to infrared radiation which is eventually absorbed by the atmosphere. Such Energy Star roofing material is now available and it should be tax free. This would also reduce the air conditioning requirements and the heat island of cities during summer. However, such roofs are expensive and should be part of the ecoENERGY retrofit program and also for the new Equilibrium Housing program.
Cities should establish green communities such as Dockside Green in Victoria and Drake Landing in Okotoks, Alberta which have well insulated homes with heat pumps, solar collectors and underground storage that use a minimum amount of power. A national standard should also be established for such green communities and municipalities and all provinces should endeavor to implement them in most new developments.
Many home owners as well as commercial and industrial mangers are unaware of the efficiency of their facilities so it is probably wise to introduce a modest GhG tax to encourage more awareness and hopefully some improvements. The GhGs should be determined for each utility and become a line item on the hydro, natural gas and heating oil bills. The ecoENERGY value should be determined for all older homes. This should be implemented at the municipal level where information about the house or factory is already known and might start in 2010 and would be a line item on the property tax. The criteria should gradually be raised to say 60 by 2015 and 70 by 2020. It would be up to the owner to have the property evaluated, improved if necessary and rechecked. There should also be a GhG tax on fossil fuels used for space heating. This should initially be about $10 a tonne of carbon dioxide emissions and could be implemented at the provincial levels and collected by the distributors of coal, home heating oil and natural gas. The money raised by these taxes should stay in the municipality and be used to help improve the efficiency of dwellings for low income families and for community housing.
The author had improved the insulation of their 1967 baseboard resistance heated bungalow to an EnerGuide value of 70 by simply improving the insulation in the attic and replacing most of the windows with argon or krypton and heat mirror films. A Mitsubishi Mr. Slim triple split ductless heat pump was installed in 2006 and also new doors and this increased the rating to 80. This new heating system reduced the hydro power requirements by about a third in winter and saved about 8000 kWh (~$800) of power over the heating season. However, this system was improperly connected and only corrected two years later but it does not have a setback programming feature and also cannot activate the baseboard heaters when the temperature is below -20 °C. Consequently this particular system needs frequent attention.
There is a problem acquiring heat pumps in Canada as there are very few showrooms where the price and capabilities can be ascertained and compared by a home owner. Consequently, they are at the mercy of fast and often slick salespersons who inflate the capital and installation costs as the author has just found out in Ottawa. Consumers Reports will be evaluating heat pumps but It is suggested that Natural Resources Canada also develop an independent testing procedure for heat pumps and list the results on a web site and in a booklet much like it does for cars. It should also require each manufacture to have a web site and brochures with the retail prices and specifications and also for the distributors to at least have a showroom in most cities with prices and a few functioning heat pumps. There should be no taxes whatsoever on heat pumps and building insulation as well as windows that have an R value of 6 or more. Provinces and municipalities should have all new heat pump installations inspected to insure the units have been checked for leaks, have the proper refrigerant level and all the lines are insulated and all units checked and wired properly.
The efficiency of vehicles
must also be significantly increased and this is possible with technology and the use of lighter
materials. Some hybrid and diesel cars now
get about 5l/100 km which is about twice as good as the average car. Diesel engines are being improved with soot
filters and catalytic converters to reduce the NOx emissions so vehicles with these
clean engines are comparable to hybrids (see Sci. Am., March 2007). Furthermore, a small device introduced just before the fuel
injection for the engine, producing a strong electric field to reduce the fuel
viscosity, results in much smaller fuel droplets in atomization. Because combustion starts at the droplet
surface, smaller droplets lead to cleaner and more efficient combustion. Both laboratory tests and road tests confirm
this theory and indicate that such a device improves fuel mileage by
20%.
The Aptera is a new highly streamlined composite hybrid vehicle that achieves less than 1l/100 km. Furthermore, light weight sedans, SUV and pickups made of composites or aluminum can get 4l/100 km so the problem is the reluctance of the manufacturers to move in the right direction. The Corporate Average Fuel Efficiency (CAFE) should gradually be increased to this range in the next few years or else the EU standard should be adopted. The EU is establishing a CAFE of 130 gm/km. The use of the new US standard is low and only marginally improves the efficiency of vehicles. An improved standard is also being developed for trucks. Light and streamlined plug-in hybrid trucks and buses with the new CNT batteries should be able to get twice the mileage of present trucks. The Harper government now has incentives to encourage the purchase of more efficient vehicles. Toyota and GM are exploring hybrid cars with large lithium ion batteries for extended range that also have the option of a plug so they can be charged during the night. EEStor claim to have developed an ultra capacitor that can store three times the energy of lithium ion batteries and it can be recharged in a few minutes. They expect to go into commercial production in 2009. Zenn electric cars will have one of the first vehicles with this storage device. Such electric vehicles might also provide power to a dwelling with another plug and an inverter in the event of an extended power outage. Generally all transport systems should be white to reflect the visible and near infrared solar rays back into space before they turn into heat and infrared energy.
Adding up to 10% ethanol to gasoline helps to save oil but it should only be made from by-products such as straw or wood chips using enzymes rather than from fermentation processes. Special crops for ethanol take about as much energy to plant and harvest the crop as the ethanol produced from the crop. The Harper government is now supporting Iogen to develop a large scale plant in Saskatchewan using special enzymes to make ethanol from straw. Note the energy in ethanol is about a third less than in gasoline so mileage will be less. Butanol has more energy than ethanol and can be produced from sugar beets and should also be developed. Fuel can also be produced from algae which can grow in ponds or in closed systems. This is now viable with the high price of oil and some agencies are planning more research in this field with larger experimental facilities. It may also be possible to develop special microbes to harvest oil or bitumen in difficult geological formations.
Biodiesel, which is produced from soybeans and canola, is a much more efficient process as it does not have to be distilled and should be considered. A standard of 20% biodiesel should be established to reduce the costs of this fuel and also save the environment and fossil fuels. An Oxford company, Oxonica, has recently developed an additive called Envirox for diesel fuel that improves the efficiency by 5-10%. It consists of tiny particles of cerium oxide, which catalyzes the combustion reactions between the diesel fuel and air and also reduces the pollutants. NRCan should explore this ‘energizer’ technology. A group at MIT has developed a more efficient gasoline engine (~25%) by injecting ethanol into the combustion chamber to cool the compressed gas so that a higher compression ratio can be used and thereby improve the efficiency. This or the clean Diesel technology when combined with a hybrid system can improve the efficiency of most vehicles by ~40%.
The excise tax on gasoline should be increased a few cents every year to reduce demand but that for diesel fuel might be only a cent or so to encourage the use of the more efficient clean diesel engines. The USA and Mexico should be encouraged to have a similar excise/GhG tax so that they do not have a competitive edge. A modest GhG tax should also be considered when the vehicles licence is renewed. The mileage travelled since the previous time is know and from the emission rate of the vehicle the amount of GhG can readily be calculated. A tax of say $10 per tonne of CO2 emissions could be considered to encourage minimal use of old and inefficient vehicles. This would be about $50 per year for a large vehicle which produces 5000 kg of CO2 per year (~20,000 km) and possibly $75 for a truck or an old or inefficient vehicle. This money should go to the associated municipality to improve public transit and roads or to a subsidy for efficient vehicles.
A Dutch firm has recently developed a small enclosed tricycle that could get one around a community in most weather conditions and thereby save fuel and the associated pollution. There should be no taxes whatsoever on bicycles. However, the bicycle paths should be significantly improved in most cities. The vehicles and their mileage should be noted when the dwelling and commercial facility are checked during the EnerGuide/ecoENERGY survey. The natural gas lines should also be checked to ensure there is no leakage whatsoever of this GhG.
There should also be a CAFE developed for trucks and buses as many of them are not as efficient as they might be. Most large pickups, SUVs and cars should be powered by more efficient and clean diesel hybrid engines rather than by gasoline ones. Furthermore, hybrids should be developed for most 18 wheelers and they should be streamlined and constructed from lighter material (aluminum). The drag on a vehicle is proportional to the square of the velocity. Hence, the speed limits should be enforced, particularly for trucks, and in a year or so reduced to 100 km/hr from 110 on divided highways. Ontario and Quebec now have regulations for speed limiting controls on large trucks. There should be separate lanes for trucks on congested highways but with a 90 km/hr speed limit to improve the efficiency of the trucking transportation system.
Delft University in the Netherlands are developing a smart and efficient Superbus which is streamlined and can travel on local roads or at high speed on a Supertrack and is ideal for sprawled out cities and intercity travel. They can provide nearly door to door service for those living and working near suitable high speed routes and hence are better and more efficient than light rail. A Dutch company has recently developed bus wheels with a built in electric motor which is more efficient than using gears and a differential. Carbon nanotube batteries and ultra capacitors are becoming available which can be rapidly recharged so these make good power sources for transit buses. These hybrid buses are about 50% more efficient than a conventional diesel bus. Orion Industries now have a hybrid bus but it is fairly heavy. Light streamlined and overhead ‘plug-in’ hybrid buses are needed for regular transit service so they can be recharged while waiting at a transit station. See the author’s article “Optimizing Ottawa’ Core Transit System”. Light rail is expensive and inflexible and best for commuting between concentrated high density locations such as the big hotels in Las Vegas.
Fuel cells are being developed that are more efficient than earlier versions and they can also use readily available fuels such as diesel and kerosene rather than expensive hydrogen. These could readily be incorporated into most vehicles and used with lithium-ion batteries and ultra capacitors for efficient and clean hybrid vehicles.
The new hybrid Diesel engines developed by Railpower should be a new standard for all railways in Canada. Compressed natural gas turbine hybrids and nuclear powered mountain engines should also be explored for the railway industry. However, the railway safety record needs to be improved, especially that for CNR.
Commercial shipping uses about two billion barrels of oil a year and causes about 4% of the worlds GhG emissions. Most large vessels are diesel powered and use dirty bunker C oil for the fuel for the engines. This fuel should be cleaned of the sulphur like that for the new clean diesel fuel so that it does not pollute the oceans and catalytic converters can then be used to reduce the NOx GhG emissions. All old large ocean going vessels should then be upgraded with catalytic converters, filters and scrubbers to reduce GhG emissions. The carbon dioxide should be captured and compressed into a liquid and stored on board and then piped to an underground site when in harbor. Giant kites can also be used to reduce the consumption of fuel by 10-25% and are being tried on the new Beluga Skysail freighter. New large ocean and laker vessels should be nuclear powered and be registered under a reputable western country to help reduce GhGs and save fossil fuels. Catamarans are more efficient than monohulls and should be considered as they also provide a second hull for flotation in the event that one is pierced. Large catamarans should fit the twin Panama locks for easy access to the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. They also make good platforms for more efficient sloop rigged tall mast sailing assisted vessels (See the author’s cat sailing discussion). Otherwise, nuclear powered vessels should have double hulls in the event of a catastrophic accident. The three new Canadian Navy supply ships and the proposed Arctic ice breakers should all be nuclear powered. Methods are being developed to significantly reduce the friction of the hulls in the water by using special air bubbles that are emitted from the bow and this will also save some fuel. There should be a GhG tax of ~$10 per tonne of carbon dioxide emissions while sailing in Canadian waters with old conventional engines.
Jet air transport is uniquely polluting and can produce about a ton of carbon per 100 kgs of cargo on long trips. ICAO is exploring methods to reduce the amount of pollution and associated cone trails caused by aircraft. There are several steps that could be taken to improve the efficiency by ~20%. P&W have developed several geared bypass turbines which are about 15% more efficient than conventional jet engines. ICAO should also remove the ‘no fuel tax’ restrictions for members and initiate a modest tax for inefficient aircraft. Large transport aircraft should be powered by turboprop engines as they are about 20% more efficient than jet engines and hence help to reduce the carbon dioxide emissions and also save fossil fuel. The venerable Lockheed C130 turboprop is such an aircraft and the new Airbus A400 is another efficient heavy transport aircraft. The new Bombardier Q400 is also an efficient and quiet 70 seat regional turboprop aircraft. New jet aircraft might be designed to convert to turbo props as the cost of fuel will soon escalate even further. This could be accomplished by simply replacing the swept wings with the attached jets to straight wings with turbo prop systems. The turboprop aircraft are well suited to short and medium flights and airline regulators should give preference to airlines with such equipment for these routes. All flights should be optimized to save fuel and not time. In particular, the descent part of the flight should be a long glide with just a bit of power so the engines are not a drag on the aircraft.
Flying wing aircraft are about 25% more efficient and sometimes quieter and such jets are being investigated at MIT and Cambridge University and also at NASA. However, canards have better viewing capabilities for the passengers and are also efficient and should be explored. Laminar air flow over the wings also improves the efficiency of airplanes by 20-30% and should also be investigated. However, such wings require careful modeling and production of extremely smooth wing surfaces or small holes in the wing for a vacuum to keep the airflow attached to the wing.
Tractors should move the jet airplanes about on the tarmac and to the end of the runway to save fuel and reduce the GhGs and obnoxious emissions around airports. These tractors should be efficient and clean diesel hybrids with a large battery pack or ultra capacitors and plug capability so they can be recharged from AC sources when waiting between tasks. Alternatively, Wheeltug are developing a powerful electric motor that fits in the hub of the front wheel of an airplane that can move the airplane about efficiently on the tarmac using power from the jets auxiliary engine. ICAO should establish minimum efficiency standards ASAP for new transport and passenger aircraft much like most governments have for vehicles. It should also repeal the requirement of ‘no fuel tax’ for its members as air travel is about 20 times more polluting per passenger kilometer than automobiles and consequently should not be subsidized.
The world faces incredible environmental risks and economic stress from the mass consumption of meat, fossil fuels and other geological resources. The United Nations estimates that 850 million people are suffering from starvation or severe malnutrition and another one billion who do not have access to safe drinking water. Simply for the poor to catch up with the rich would triple the global economic throughput with unacceptable environmental consequences and risks. Each individual also produces about a kilogram of carbon dioxide a day by simply breathing and so collectively (6.3 billion) we produce about 2 Gt a year. The continued rapid population growth will exacerbate the environmental stresses and risks. For the world and especially for the poor countries the benefit of lower fertility rates is apparent. A move to lower fertility rates in poor countries will mean healthier children, faster growth in living standards and reduced environmental stressors. Reduced fertility rates in the poorest countries would also be a smart investment for the rich countries for their own future well-being. Evidence indicates that fast transitions to low fertility rates are possible. First, promote child survival then parents will have fewer children. Second, promote girls’ education and gender equality. Girls in school marry later and empowered young women enter the labor force and have fewer children. Third, promote the availability of contraception and family planning, especially for the poor who cannot afford such services. Fourth, encourage one child and at most two children per family of two parents. Fifth, raise productivity on the farm as income-earning mothers rear fewer children. Sixth, reduce agriculture subsidies in the west so that the production in poor countries can bring a fair value.
Obviously every country must stabilize its population ASAP and certainly by mid century so that the population by the end of the century would be about 6 billion. There are numerous birth control methods and new more effective methods and they should be readily available to all individuals. China is to be commended for its one child per family policy. India, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Pakistan, Iran, Egypt and Nigeria should at least adopt the above policy or explore the one child per family policy. Canada should significantly improve its family planning so every child has a healthy family environment and resources for secondary and post secondary education. It is suggested that families be encouraged to have at most two children and single parent families be encourage to have only one child. It should also limit its immigration for the next few decades to only those with essential skills. The UN must help the developing counties with these ecological, energy and social problems and, at the same time, impose fines and other conditions on any county that significantly enhance the GhGs in the atmosphere or pollutes the oceans and causes population and other ecological disasters.
The livestock sector is responsible for 18% of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions which is more than that for transport. A recent study found that for the production of one kilogram of beef on the table required about 36 kg of GhG emissions. Intensification of productivity of livestock and feedcrop agriculture can reduce greenhouse gas emissions and also limit deforestation and pasture degradation. Barns and enclosed facilities for stock yards, feed lots and manure ponds should be fitted with controlled ventilation and scrubbers or carbon filters to reduce some of the GhG emissions. Restoration of historical losses of soil carbon through conservation tillage, cover crops, perennial crops, agroforestry and other measures could sequester or save up to 1.3 tonnes of carbon per hectare per year.
Nutrition guide lines for the consumption of red meat, white meat and fish should be reduced to at most one modest meal of each per week. Dairy products should also be limited as substitutes are generally available. A modest national animal GhG emission tax should be developed for all domestic animals and also for pets. This tax should be implemented by all provinces in order to be fair for marketing purposes. The significant subsidies for the beef, dairy and poultry industries in most countries should be gradually lowered and eventually removed so the buyer pays the full cost which would help to reduce their consumption.
Ottawa and other Remote Cities
All major isolated cities should have a local hydro distributor with some generating capabilities much like Ottawa Hydro. The power for the city of Ottawa (~1400 MW) is mainly from a few long lines to remote stations and is vulnerable to a number of risks. The revamped Energy Ottawa generating station on the Chaudière Dam can now supply about 13 MW and another generator is being considered. The adjacent Domtar generating station is also being refurbished and is expected to be able to generate 28 MW when completed. However, despite the fact the system uses water from the Ontario side of the river the generated power will be connected to the Hydro Quebec grid. At least half of the power should go to Ottawa Hydro. It is suggested that Ontario Power Generation and Energy Ottawa investigate this strange relation. The Chats Falls station is on the western edge of the city and 4 generators should cost about $100 million. Ottawa Hydro might acquire some of these OPG generators at the Chats Falls generating facility and associated transmission lines, if possible. It should also inquire about the Hydro Quebec generators at this site as they are presently interested in some cash. This should provide about 90 MW of secure power but another hundred megawatts are required to meet the preferred goal of 20% of peak requirements for periods of extended outages.
A low dam on the Ottawa River below the nearby Remic rapids with pipes to take the water about half a kilometer downstream to the three generating facilities at the Chaudière Dam could provide additional power. With such additional generators it would increase the power output of each of the three stations by about 10-15 MW. However, the rapids at Lac Deschenes near Britannia could be removed to lower the datum of the lake a few feet and with a higher dam at the Remic rapids and dikes by the parkway an extra 10 feet or so of head could be obtained for more power. It would also provide a large lake for storage for peak requirements and with additional generators could probably put out a total of about 100 MW at such times.
Another possible generating site is on the Rideau River at the Long Island Locks where the dam provides about a 30-foot head. A generator at the base of this dam could provide about a megawatt. The Allumettes rapids near Pembroke could also provide some power via a weir dam and perhaps an additional 10 foot head. Such a dam could increase the head and divert some of the flow into pipes which could carry the water below the rapids for several generators which might produce ~50 MW. There is a long series of rapids on the nearby Gatineau River in Quebec just below the Farmer dam. A weir dam near the outlet and pipes to carry the water a few kilometers downstream could probably produce 50 MW or so of power. These possibilities should be investigated. Turbines for such hydro power generators can be made at Canadian Hydro Components Ltd. in Almonte, Ontario.
Alternatively, a standby source could be developed for Ottawa for supply power during emergency or peak conditions when the price is generally very high and should be explored. A facility of ~50 MW would bring the local capacity to about 10% of the total requirement so that power would be available every 12 hours or so during an extended outage. Energy Ottawa should also explore other potential hydro power sources and any possible wind generating locations in Eastern Ontario (see Fed support at Wind Energy and wind energy maps). There are several large hills in Eastern Ontario and Western Quebec and a wind farm of a dozen or so generators with an output of ~2.5 MW each could provide ~30 MW of green power. The utility should pay down its synthetic debt with the city and then raise substantial reserves in order to acquire significant new generating facilities. Nevertheless, Hydro Ottawa should be a non-profit utility much the same as for other basic services. It is noted that Hydro Ottawa and some other Ontario distribution utilities has recently implemented a powerWISE conservation program.
If long-term contracts cannot be obtained for the base load then Energy Ottawa could explore acquiring a nuclear station. Either one unit (~700 MW –about half of the city’s requirements in 2010) of the new efficient type III+ nuclear power stations (see Physics Today, Apr. 2002 for a discussion) could be developed or one of the Advanced CANDU Reactor systems- ACR 1000-which Bruce Power, OPG, SaskPower and N.B. Power are presently considering. Note it takes many years of environmental study for a site permit so it might be wise to explore this concept in the near future. The cost of electricity from such nuclear stations has been estimated at ~5 cents per kilowatt-hour and hence Ottawa would have an advantage over many other cities in cost and security of supply. The nuclear generator could also be used in low demand periods to produce hydrogen for the cities’ fuel cell equipped vehicles such as the Superbus.
The incorporation of Hydro Ottawa, as required under the Electricity Act, has resulted in a board with little accountability to its shareholder, the city, as well as the ratepayers. The three elected members on the board do not provide proper representation and accountability for the new large city and needs to be changed at the end of this term. The city of Ottawa has three urban centers within the greenbelt and three centers beyond. There should be one elected representative from each of these 6 districts on the board and the chair of the board should also be a councilor, if possible. However, there could be up to five outside experts in the electricity/energy field on the board to advise on technical and other matters for a total of twelve members. The chair should work closely with the CEO to ensure efficient and effective management of the hydro power services for the city. The utility has significant assets (~$500 million) and provides a critical service for the city. Hence the board should report directly to council the same as the other standing committees (see the One City plus 6 Divisions article at the author's home page http://pages.istar.ca/~jwalker ) and on at least a quarterly basis to provide updates and for consideration of direction by council.
